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Davao Aguilas vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:00

Davao Aguilas

PPG 1.90 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Manila Digger

PPG 2.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-12.2%0-24.5%0-36.1%0-4+18.2%1 1-00.6%1-12.6%1-25.2%1-37.0%1-4+21.0%2 2-00.4%2-11.5%2-23.0%2-34.0%2-4+12.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.6%3-21.2%3-31.6%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.1% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 67.4% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 76.3% — — —

BTTS 59.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)4.1 BTTS prob59.2%

A 67% / xG 1.2-4.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–4 7.1%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 0–4 6.2%

#4 0–3 6.1%

#5 1–5 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Davao Aguilas1.2

Manila Digger4.1

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 76.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DAVAO AGUILAS · PPG 1.90

MANILA DIGGER · PPG 2.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.80) vs Home GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

Davao Aguilas (H) 11.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Manila Digger (A) 67.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Davao Aguilas face Manila Digger in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Davao Aguilas a 11% chance, the draw 21% and Manila Digger 67%, so Manila Digger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Davao Aguilas and 4.1 for Manila Digger (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Davao Aguilas are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 2.80 for Manila Digger. This match finished 1-0.

Davao Aguilas vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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