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Alashkert vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 11:00

Alashkert

PPG 1.92 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gandzasar

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-16.4%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-110.3%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.3%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.9%3-14.5%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-12.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 71.4% 1.40 -26.6%

Draw 27.2% 23.8% 4.20 +8.5%

Away win 20.5% 14.7% 6.80 +23.6%

Over 2.5 45.8% 56.5% 1.77 -18.9%

Over 3.5 17.6% 33.9% 2.95 -28.8%

BTTS 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 2–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 1–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alashkert1.6

Gandzasar0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALASHKERT · PPG 1.92

GANDZASAR · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.92) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Alashkert (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +8.5%

Gandzasar (A) 20.5%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alashkert face Gandzasar in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alashkert a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Gandzasar 21%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Alashkert and 0.6 for Gandzasar (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alashkert are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.45 for Gandzasar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Alashkert vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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