Today / Sebat G. vs Yozgat

Sebat G. vs Yozgat Prediction

Group 3 - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Sebat G.

PPG 2.71 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Yozgat

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-15.8%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-110.5%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.9%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 15.8% — — —

Over 2.5 48.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.9% — — —

BTTS 46.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.0%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.3%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sebat G.1.8

Yozgat0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SEBAT G. · PPG 2.71

YOZGAT · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Win probability 1X2

Sebat G. (H) 61.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yozgat (A) 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sebat G. face Yozgat on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sebat G. a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Yozgat 16%, so Sebat G. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sebat G. and 0.8 for Yozgat (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sebat G. are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.57 for Yozgat. This match finished 2-3.

Sebat G. vs Yozgat Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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