Today / Lech Poznan UAM vs UKS SMS Lodz W

Lech Poznan UAM vs UKS SMS Lodz W Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Lech Poznan UAM
PPG 1.50 · HOME
1 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
UKS SMS Lodz W
PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.6%0-25.7%0-33.9%0-4+3.1%1 1-04.3%1-18.8%1-28.9%1-36.0%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.8%2-26.9%2-34.7%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.6%3-32.4%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-22.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 33.0%
Draw 25.0%
Away win 42.0%
Over 2.5 61.7%
Over 3.5 48.2%
BTTS 62.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1
xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.5%

A 42% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%
#2 1–2 8.9%
#3 2–2 6.9%
#4 2–1 6.8%
#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan UAM1.6
UKS SMS Lodz W2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN UAM · PPG 1.50

UKS SMS LODZ W · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan UAM (H) 33.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
UKS SMS Lodz W (A) 42.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan UAM face UKS SMS Lodz W on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan UAM a 33% chance, the draw 25% and UKS SMS Lodz W 42%, so UKS SMS Lodz W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lech Poznan UAM and 2.0 for UKS SMS Lodz W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan UAM are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.44 for UKS SMS Lodz W. This match finished 1-1.

PredictVantage

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