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St George City vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 09:15

St George City

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-111.4%0-29.2%0-34.9%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.4%1-111.9%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.9%2-16.2%2-24.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 38.5% 2.60 -16.9%

Draw 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Away win 45.4% 40.8% 2.45 +11.2%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City1.0

Sutherland S.1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 1.14

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

St George City (H) 27.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Sutherland S. (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City face Sutherland S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Sutherland S. 45%, so Sutherland S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for St George City and 1.6 for Sutherland S. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.17 for Sutherland S.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 1-0.

St George City vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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