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Marconi S. vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 09:00

Marconi S.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.6%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.0%1-12.6%1-21.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.0%2-15.2%2-22.3%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.1%3-17.1%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-023.9%4+-120.9%4+-29.2%4+-32.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.1% 87.7% 1.14 -17.8%

Draw 20.1% 16.1% 6.20 +14.8%

Away win 7.9% 6.7% 15.00 +11.1%

Over 2.5 78.8% 76.9% 1.30 +2.4%

Over 3.5 72.3% 55.6% 1.80 +30.1%

BTTS 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 72% / xG 4.0-0.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.1%

#2 3–0 8.1%

#3 4–1 7.1%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 5–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.4.0

Sydney Olympic0.9

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 72.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 3.00

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 72.1%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -17.8%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +14.8%

Sydney Olympic (A) 7.9%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face Sydney Olympic in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 72% chance, the draw 20% and Sydney Olympic 8%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Marconi S. and 0.9 for Sydney Olympic (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Sydney Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Marconi S. vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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