Today / Arema vs PSM

Arema vs PSM Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Arema

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

PSM

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.4%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.1%1-112.2%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-18.9%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.3%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 52.8% — — —

Over 3.5 27.8% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 7.0%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arema1.5

PSM1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AREMA · PPG 1.33

PSM · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Arema (H) 44.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

PSM (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arema face PSM on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arema a 44% chance, the draw 27% and PSM 29%, so Arema are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Arema and 1.2 for PSM (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arema are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.07 for PSM. This match finished 3-0.

Arema vs PSM Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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