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APIA Leichhardt vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:15

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sydney Utd

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.6%0-25.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.9%1-111.4%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.5%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 51.3% 1.95 -27.3%

Draw 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Away win 36.4% 29.9% 3.35 +21.9%

Over 2.5 59.3% 62.5% 1.60 -5.1%

Over 3.5 33.9% 40.8% 2.45 -16.9%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1✓ 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

APIA Leichhardt1.5

Sydney Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 3.00

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (3.00), Away EXCELLENT (3.00)

Win probability 1X2

APIA Leichhardt (H) 37.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -27.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Sydney Utd (A) 36.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

APIA Leichhardt face Sydney Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives APIA Leichhardt a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Sydney Utd 36%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for APIA Leichhardt and 1.4 for Sydney Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, APIA Leichhardt are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Sydney Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 2-1.

APIA Leichhardt vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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