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Holland Park H. vs Caboolture Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:00

Holland Park H.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Caboolture

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.9%0-24.6%0-32.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.6%1-18.6%1-28.1%1-35.1%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.4%3-14.5%3-24.3%3-32.7%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.0%4+-22.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 37.0% 2.70 +0.7%

Draw 26.3% 25.0% 4.00 +3.1%

Away win 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

Over 2.5 61.7% 76.9% 1.30 -19.8%

Over 3.5 49.5% 56.5% 1.77 -12.4%

BTTS 62.8% 78.1% 1.28 -19.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.8%

A 36% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Holland Park H.1.8

Caboolture1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLLAND PARK H. · PPG 1.50

CABOOLTURE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Holland Park H. (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +0.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.1%

Caboolture (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Holland Park H. face Caboolture in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Holland Park H. a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Caboolture 36%, so Holland Park H. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Holland Park H. and 1.9 for Caboolture (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Holland Park H. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Caboolture. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 3-5.

Holland Park H. vs Caboolture Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions