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SD Raiders vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.9%0-26.9%0-34.0%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.2%1-110.7%1-29.3%1-35.4%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.2%2-26.3%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.9%3-13.3%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% 40.0% 2.50 -16.0%

Draw 25.5% 29.4% 3.40 -8.0%

Away win 41.0% 40.8% 2.45 +0.4%

Over 2.5 59.8% 63.7% 1.57 -6.1%

Over 3.5 37.2% 41.7% 2.40 -10.7%

BTTS 58.8% 69.0% 1.45 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.8%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders1.4

NWS Spirit1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.00

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 33.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.0%

NWS Spirit (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face NWS Spirit in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 34% chance, the draw 26% and NWS Spirit 41%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SD Raiders and 1.7 for NWS Spirit (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.33 for NWS Spirit. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-0.

SD Raiders vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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