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Australia - New South Wales NPL logo Australia flag Australia - New South Wales NPL Regular Season - 14 Ernie Smith Reserve Saturday, May 9, 2026 07:00
SD Raiders logo SD Raiders PPG 1.00
0-0 MISS
NWS Spirit logo NWS Spirit PPG 1.33
Away· +0.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.6%
Odds: 2.50 EV: -16.0%
Draw 25.5%
Odds: 3.40 EV: -8.0%
Away 41.0%
Odds: 2.45 EV: +0.4%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.8% Odds: 1.57 -6.1%
Over 3.5 37.2% Odds: 2.40 -10.7%
BTTS 58.8% Odds: 1.45 -14.7%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-2
3rd 2-1
4th 0-2
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

SD Raiders
1.35
NWS Spirit
1.74

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -6.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -6.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+0.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%
O2.5/Under 50%
BTTS/No 46%
Score Hit 37%
ROI 17.4%
Bet Hit 71% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.33)

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