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Altona Magic vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 05:15

Altona Magic

PPG 0.78 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-19.3%0-29.6%0-36.6%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.9%1-36.8%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.4%2-15.0%2-25.1%2-33.5%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.8%3-31.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 39.2% 2.55 -26.0%

Draw 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

Away win 55.8% 43.5% 2.30 +28.3%

Over 2.5 60.9% 64.5% 1.55 -5.6%

Over 3.5 37.1% 42.0% 2.38 -11.7%

BTTS 55.6% 69.0% 1.45 -19.4%

Home O1.5 35.2% 50.0% 2.00 -29.6%

Away O1.5 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -3.0%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob55.6%

A 56% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 1–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic1.0

Melbourne C. B2.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 0.78

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.89

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.89) vs Home POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 22.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -26.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.5%

Melbourne C. B (A) 55.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Melbourne C. B in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Melbourne C. B 56%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Altona Magic and 2.1 for Melbourne C. B (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.89 for Melbourne C. B. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Altona Magic vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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