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Heidelberg Utd vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 09:30

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

St. Albans

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.1%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.1%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.1%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 67.6% 1.48 -20.4%

Draw 22.2% 24.4% 4.10 -5.4%

Away win 23.9% 17.9% 5.60 +20.3%

Over 2.5 60.9% 61.7% 1.62 -1.3%

Over 3.5 37.1% 40.0% 2.50 -7.2%

BTTS 55.6% 59.9% 1.67 -7.1%

Home O1.5 54.7% 67.6% 1.48 -19.0%

Away O1.5 34.4% 29.0% 3.45 +18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg Utd2.0

St. Albans1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 1.56

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg Utd (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -20.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.4%

St. Albans (A) 23.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg Utd face St. Albans in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg Utd a 54% chance, the draw 22% and St. Albans 24%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Heidelberg Utd and 1.0 for St. Albans (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg Utd are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.22 for St. Albans. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Heidelberg Utd vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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