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Green Gully vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bentleigh G.

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-114.1%0-28.6%0-33.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.1%2-16.2%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

Draw 27.7% 30.8% 3.25 -6.0%

Away win 35.8% 35.1% 2.85 +2.0%

Over 2.5 49.7% 51.8% 1.93 -4.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.9% 3.35 -2.1%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 33.9% 45.5% 2.20 -25.4%

Away O1.5 39.8% 38.5% 2.60 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.8%

H 36% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully0.9

Bentleigh G.1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.13

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 0.57

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.13) vs Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.9%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.0%

Bentleigh G. (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Bentleigh G. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Bentleigh G. 36%, so Green Gully are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Green Gully and 1.2 for Bentleigh G. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.13 points per game versus 0.57 for Bentleigh G.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Green Gully vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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