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Green Gully vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bentleigh G.

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-114.1%0-28.6%0-33.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.1%2-16.2%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

Draw 27.7% 30.8% 3.25 -6.0%

Away win 35.8% 35.1% 2.85 +2.0%

Over 2.5 49.7% 51.8% 1.93 -4.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.9% 3.35 -2.1%

BTTS 52.8% 58.8% 1.70 -10.2%

Home O1.5 33.9% 45.5% 2.20 -25.4%

Away O1.5 39.8% 38.5% 2.60 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.8%

A 36% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully0.9

Bentleigh G.1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.13

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 0.57

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.13) vs Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.9%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.0%

Bentleigh G. (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Bentleigh G. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Bentleigh G. 36%, so Green Gully are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Green Gully and 1.2 for Bentleigh G. (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.13 points per game versus 0.57 for Bentleigh G.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +3.5%.

Green Gully vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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