Today / Nittaidai W vs NGU Nagoya W

Nittaidai W vs NGU Nagoya W Prediction

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Nittaidai W

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NGU Nagoya W

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.6%0-25.0%0-34.7%0-4+6.6%1 1-02.0%1-15.6%1-27.8%1-37.3%1-4+10.2%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-26.1%2-35.7%2-4+7.9%3 3-00.8%3-12.2%3-23.1%3-32.9%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.2%4+-21.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 56.8% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 63.4% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob63.0%

A 57% / xG 1.5-2.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–3 7.3%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nittaidai W1.5

NGU Nagoya W2.8

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NITTAIDAI W · PPG 1.75

NGU NAGOYA W · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Nittaidai W (H) 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

NGU Nagoya W (A) 56.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nittaidai W face NGU Nagoya W on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nittaidai W a 23% chance, the draw 21% and NGU Nagoya W 57%, so NGU Nagoya W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nittaidai W and 2.8 for NGU Nagoya W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nittaidai W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.33 for NGU Nagoya W. This match finished 3-2.

Nittaidai W vs NGU Nagoya W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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