Today / Venezuela - Primera División / Metropolitanos vs E. Merida

Metropolitanos vs E. Merida Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 2 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 23:00

Metropolitanos

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

E. Merida

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-110.0%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.0%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 52.4% 1.91 -15.4%

Draw 29.4% 30.8% 3.25 -2.7%

Away win 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Over 2.5 45.8% 51.8% 1.93 -11.6%

Over 3.5 17.8% 30.8% 3.25 -25.3%

BTTS 50.9% 57.8% 1.73 -11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.9%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 2–0✓ 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metropolitanos1.3

E. Merida0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

METROPOLITANOS · PPG 2.14

E. MERIDA · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Metropolitanos (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -15.4%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.7%

E. Merida (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metropolitanos face E. Merida in Venezuela - Primera División on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metropolitanos a 44% chance, the draw 29% and E. Merida 26%, so Metropolitanos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Metropolitanos and 0.9 for E. Merida (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metropolitanos are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.43 for E. Merida. This match finished 2-0.

Metropolitanos vs E. Merida Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions