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Excursionistas vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 23:00

Excursionistas

PPG 2.17 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

UAI Urquiza

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.7%0-113.1%0-22.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.4%1-19.4%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.4%2-13.4%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.0%3-10.8%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 54.1% 1.85 -32.9%

Draw 42.1% 32.3% 3.10 +30.5%

Away win 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Over 2.5 23.8% 37.0% 2.70 -21.4%

Over 3.5 2.7% 20.0% 5.00 -51.9%

BTTS 29.3% 43.5% 2.30 -19.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob29.3%

H 36% / xG 0.7-0.4 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 32.7%

#2 1–0 23.4%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excursionistas0.7

UAI Urquiza0.4

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 2.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 2.17

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=36.3%

Win probability 1X2

Excursionistas (H) 36.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -32.9%

Draw 42.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +30.5%

UAI Urquiza (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excursionistas face UAI Urquiza in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excursionistas a 36% chance, the draw 42% and UAI Urquiza 22%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Excursionistas and 0.4 for UAI Urquiza (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excursionistas are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.17 for UAI Urquiza. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Excursionistas vs UAI Urquiza Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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