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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Friday, May 8, 2026 18:30 
Arenas Club PPG 2.06 
Racing Ferrol PPG 1.12
Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Friday, May 8, 2026 18:30 Arenas Club PPG 2.061-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Racing Ferrol PPG 1.12Home· +14.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: 2.30 +7.0%
Over 3.5 20.5% Odds: 4.00 -10.8%
BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.80 -5.9%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✔
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 0-1 ✘
5th 2-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Arenas Club 1.27
Racing Ferrol 1.05
Model Suggestion
BTTS -5.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home (+14.2%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home (+14.2%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 60 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 40%
O2.5/Under 53%
BTTS/No 62%
Score Hit 47%
ROI -35.1%
Bet Hit 35% (17 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=42.3%