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Arenas Club vs Racing Ferrol Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Arenas Club

PPG 2.06 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Racing Ferrol

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.3%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.3%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 37.0% 2.70 +14.2%

Draw 29.9% 39.2% 2.55 -14.2%

Away win 27.8% 33.9% 2.95 -10.8%

Over 2.5 46.5% 43.5% 2.30 +7.0%

Over 3.5 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arenas Club1.3

Racing Ferrol1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENAS CLUB · PPG 2.06

RACING FERROL · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=42.3%

Win probability 1X2

Arenas Club (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +14.2%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.2%

Racing Ferrol (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arenas Club face Racing Ferrol in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arenas Club a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Racing Ferrol 28%, so Arenas Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Arenas Club and 1.1 for Racing Ferrol (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arenas Club are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.12 for Racing Ferrol. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Arenas Club vs Racing Ferrol Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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