Today / Al Anwar vs Al Diraiyah

Al Anwar vs Al Diraiyah Prediction

Friday, May 8, 2026

Al Anwar

PPG 1.44 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Diraiyah

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.2%0-27.4%0-35.1%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.6%1-19.4%1-29.6%1-36.6%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.9%2-16.0%2-26.2%2-34.2%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.7%3-31.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 49.8% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob58.8%

A 50% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Anwar1.3

Al Diraiyah2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ANWAR · PPG 1.44

AL DIRAIYAH · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.44) vs Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Al Anwar (H) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Diraiyah (A) 49.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Anwar face Al Diraiyah on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Anwar a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Al Diraiyah 50%, so Al Diraiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Anwar and 2.1 for Al Diraiyah (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Anwar are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.81 for Al Diraiyah. This match finished 3-0.

Al Anwar vs Al Diraiyah Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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