Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Heidelberg Utd vs South Melbourne

Heidelberg Utd vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 09:30

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 1.60 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

South Melbourne

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 30.3% — a clear edge.

+80.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.4%0-27.0%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.1%1-112.0%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-17.6%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 90.9% 1.10 -60.6%

Draw 26.1% 16.1% 6.20 +37.1%

Away win 38.2% 2.9% 34.00 +1198.8%

Over 2.5 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Over 3.5 29.9% 45.5% 2.20 -20.5%

BTTS 54.6% 30.3% 3.30 +80.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 2–1 7.6%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg Utd1.3

South Melbourne1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 1.60

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg Utd (H) 35.8%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -60.6%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +37.1%

South Melbourne (A) 38.2%

ODDS 34.00 · IMPLIED 2.9% EV +1198.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg Utd face South Melbourne in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg Utd a 36% chance, the draw 26% and South Melbourne 38%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Heidelberg Utd and 1.5 for South Melbourne (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg Utd are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.50 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1198.8%. This match finished 4-0.

Heidelberg Utd vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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