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PWD Sports Club vs Abahani Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 09:45

PWD Sports Club

PPG 0.86 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Abahani

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-113.7%0-213.4%0-38.8%0-4+6.7%1 1-04.9%1-19.6%1-29.4%1-36.1%1-4+4.7%2 2-01.7%2-13.4%2-23.3%2-32.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 9.5% 10.50 +22.5%

Draw 26.4% 21.1% 4.75 +15.2%

Away win 60.5% 82.0% 1.22 -26.2%

Over 2.5 52.8% 64.5% 1.55 -18.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 42.6% 2.35 -20.9%

BTTS 50.9% 46.5% 2.15 +9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob50.9%

A 60% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 13.4%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–3 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PWD Sports Club0.7

Abahani2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PWD SPORTS CLUB · PPG 0.86

ABAHANI · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

PWD Sports Club (H) 13.1%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV +22.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +15.2%

Abahani (A) 60.5%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

PWD Sports Club face Abahani in Bangladesh - Premier League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PWD Sports Club a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Abahani 61%, so Abahani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for PWD Sports Club and 2.0 for Abahani (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PWD Sports Club are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.71 for Abahani. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 0-2.

PWD Sports Club vs Abahani Prediction— Bangladesh - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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