Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Bentleigh G. vs Melbourne C. B

Bentleigh G. vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 09:30

Bentleigh G.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.7%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 32.3% 3.10 +18.4%

Draw 25.9% 24.4% 4.10 +3.7%

Away win 35.9% 54.6% 1.83 -34.3%

Over 2.5 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Over 3.5 32.8% 42.0% 2.38 -21.9%

BTTS 58.8% 59.9% 1.67 -1.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-7

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentleigh G.1.5

Melbourne C. B1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 2.00

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Bentleigh G. (H) 38.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +18.4%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.7%

Melbourne C. B (A) 35.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentleigh G. face Melbourne C. B in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentleigh G. a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Melbourne C. B 36%, so Bentleigh G. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bentleigh G. and 1.4 for Melbourne C. B (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentleigh G. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Melbourne C. B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 0-7.

Bentleigh G. vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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