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Brunswick City vs North Sunshine Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 09:30

Brunswick City

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

North Sunshine

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.7%0-22.4%0-31.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.7%1-16.6%1-25.8%1-33.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-27.0%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.5%3-16.3%3-25.6%3-33.3%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-16.6%4+-25.9%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 51.3% 1.95 -3.1%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Away win 26.2% 34.5% 2.90 -14.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 71.4% 1.40 -13.6%

Over 3.5 60.0% 52.1% 1.92 +15.2%

BTTS 63.0% 74.1% 1.35 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.0%

H 50% / xG 2.4-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 1–1✓ 6.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick City2.4

North Sunshine1.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 60.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 1.29

NORTH SUNSHINE · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick City (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -3.1%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

North Sunshine (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick City face North Sunshine in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick City a 50% chance, the draw 24% and North Sunshine 26%, so Brunswick City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Brunswick City and 1.8 for North Sunshine (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick City are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.86 for North Sunshine. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Brunswick City vs North Sunshine Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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