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Australia - New South Wales NPL logo Australia flag Australia - New South Wales NPL Regular Season - 14 Cromer Park· Sydney Friday, May 8, 2026 09:30
Manly Utd logo Manly Utd PPG 1.60
2-0 MISS
UNSW logo UNSW PPG 0.43
Draw· -7.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.0%
Odds: 2.35 EV: -8.3%
Draw 26.2%
Odds: 3.35 EV: -7.3%
Away 34.9%
Odds: 2.65 EV: -7.5%
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.1% Odds: 1.67 -11.3%
Over 3.5 28.9% Odds: 2.65 -14.1%
BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.53 -16.5%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 0-0
4th 1-2
5th 1-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Manly Utd
1.43
UNSW
1.28

Model Suggestion

BTTS -16.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -16.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet.

League Track Record

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%
O2.5/Under 50%
BTTS/No 46%
Score Hit 37%
ROI 17.4%
Bet Hit 71% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=39.0%

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