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Manly Utd vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 09:30

Manly Utd

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

UNSW

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.5%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.2%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.7%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 42.6% 2.35 -8.3%

Draw 26.2% 29.9% 3.35 -7.3%

Away win 34.9% 37.7% 2.65 -7.5%

Over 2.5 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 37.7% 2.65 -14.1%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly Utd1.4

UNSW1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UTD · PPG 1.60

UNSW · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=39.0%

Win probability 1X2

Manly Utd (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -8.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.3%

UNSW (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly Utd face UNSW in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly Utd a 39% chance, the draw 26% and UNSW 35%, so Manly Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Manly Utd and 1.3 for UNSW (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly Utd are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.43 for UNSW. This match finished 2-0.

Manly Utd vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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