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Australia - New South Wales NPL
Regular Season - 14
Cromer Park· Sydney
Friday, May 8, 2026
09:30
Manly Utd
PPG 1.60
2-0
MISS
UNSW
PPG 0.43
Draw· -7.3%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
39.0%
Odds: 2.35
EV: -8.3%
Draw
26.2%
Odds: 3.35
EV: -7.3%
Away
34.9%
Odds: 2.65
EV: -7.5%
Model lean:
BTTS
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
53.1%
Odds: 1.67
-11.3%
Over 3.5
28.9%
Odds: 2.65
-14.1%
BTTS
54.6%
Odds: 1.53
-16.5%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
2-1
✘
3rd
0-0
✘
4th
1-2
✘
5th
1-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Manly Utd
1.43
UNSW
1.28
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-16.5%
NO VALUE BET
No value bet:
model leans BTTS, but EV is -16.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
League Track Record
↗
Based on 54 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
48%
O2.5/Under
50%
BTTS/No
46%
Score Hit
37%
ROI
17.4%
Bet Hit
71%
(14 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=39.0%