Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / St. Albans vs Green Gully

St. Albans vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 09:30

St. Albans

PPG 0.80 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Green Gully

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.4%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.1%1-110.4%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.3%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 45.5% 2.20 +12.2%

Draw 26.4% 29.0% 3.45 -5.3%

Away win 22.6% 35.7% 2.80 -22.0%

Over 2.5 53.4% 60.6% 1.65 -11.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.5% 2.60 -17.6%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0✓ 11.1%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans1.9

Green Gully0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS · PPG 0.80

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +12.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.3%

Green Gully (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans face Green Gully in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Green Gully 23%, so St. Albans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for St. Albans and 0.9 for Green Gully (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.33 for Green Gully. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 1-0.

St. Albans vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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