Today / Erciyes vs Nigde Belediyes

Erciyes vs Nigde Belediyes Prediction

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Erciyes

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nigde Belediyes

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-18.1%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.7%1-112.2%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.2%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 42.9% — — —

Over 3.5 22.1% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.9%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erciyes1.5

Nigde Belediyes0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ERCIYES · PPG 2.00

NIGDE BELEDIYES · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Erciyes (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nigde Belediyes (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Erciyes face Nigde Belediyes on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erciyes a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Nigde Belediyes 22%, so Erciyes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Erciyes and 0.9 for Nigde Belediyes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erciyes are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Nigde Belediyes. This match finished 3-2.

Erciyes vs Nigde Belediyes Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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