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Weiden vs Coburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Weiden

PPG 1.47 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Coburg

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.9%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.3%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.7%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-17.9%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-19.3%4+-25.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 20.6% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 48.8% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 58% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.7%

#3 1–1 7.3%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weiden2.6

Coburg1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WEIDEN · PPG 1.47

COBURG · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Weiden (H) 58.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Coburg (A) 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Weiden face Coburg in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weiden a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Coburg 21%, so Weiden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Weiden and 1.1 for Coburg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weiden are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.87 for Coburg. This match finished 5-0.

Weiden vs Coburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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