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Prachuap vs Chonburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Prachuap

PPG 1.85 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chonburi

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.6%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-110.5%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.4%3-16.2%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 54.1% 1.85 +8.4%

Draw 22.2% 30.3% 3.30 -26.7%

Away win 19.1% 28.6% 3.50 -33.1%

Over 2.5 54.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.1% — — —

BTTS 52.8% 60.6% 1.65 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 59% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.8%

#2 1–1 10.5%

#3 2–0✓ 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prachuap1.9

Chonburi1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PRACHUAP · PPG 1.85

CHONBURI · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.85) > Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

Prachuap (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +8.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -26.7%

Chonburi (A) 19.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prachuap face Chonburi in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prachuap a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Chonburi 19%, so Prachuap are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Prachuap and 1.0 for Chonburi (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prachuap are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.15 for Chonburi. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Prachuap vs Chonburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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