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K. Ismailia vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

K. Ismailia

PPG 0.31 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Pharco

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-112.8%0-25.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.5%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.5%2-16.8%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.3%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 33.3% 3.00 +17.0%

Draw 35.0% 39.1% 2.56 -10.4%

Away win 26.0% 36.8% 2.72 -17.6%

Over 2.5 35.1% 40.8% 2.45 -14.0%

Over 3.5 11.4% 22.2% 4.50 -29.2%

BTTS 48.2% 54.1% 1.85 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 16.0%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

K. Ismailia1.0

Pharco0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 11.4%

Form & verdict PPG

K. ISMAILIA · PPG 0.31

PHARCO · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.31), Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

K. Ismailia (H) 39.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +17.0%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -10.4%

Pharco (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

K. Ismailia face Pharco in Egypt - Premier League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives K. Ismailia a 39% chance, the draw 35% and Pharco 26%, so K. Ismailia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for K. Ismailia and 0.8 for Pharco (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, K. Ismailia are averaging 0.31 points per game versus 0.57 for Pharco. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 0-0.

K. Ismailia vs Pharco Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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