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Viborg vs SonderjyskE Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group · Matchday 31 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Viborg

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

SonderjyskE

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.8%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.9%1-110.5%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.3%3-15.7%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.8%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 55.6% 1.80 -13.4%

Draw 26.2% 25.0% 4.00 +2.9%

Away win 25.7% 27.0% 3.70 -2.9%

Over 2.5 60.2% 70.4% 1.42 -14.5%

Over 3.5 38.0% 48.8% 2.05 -22.1%

BTTS 58.8% 71.4% 1.40 -17.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viborg1.8

SonderjyskE1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VIBORG · PPG 1.53

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Viborg (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -13.4%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +2.9%

SonderjyskE (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viborg face SonderjyskE in Denmark - Superliga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viborg a 48% chance, the draw 26% and SonderjyskE 26%, so Viborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Viborg and 1.3 for SonderjyskE (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viborg are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.93 for SonderjyskE. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Viborg vs SonderjyskE Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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