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Bangkok Utd vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Bangkok Utd

PPG 2.08 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ratchaburi

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.9%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.5%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.4%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -20.1%

Away win 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

Over 2.5 51.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bangkok Utd1.7

Ratchaburi1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGKOK UTD · PPG 2.08

RATCHABURI · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.08), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bangkok Utd (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -3.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -20.1%

Ratchaburi (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bangkok Utd face Ratchaburi in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bangkok Utd a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Ratchaburi 24%, so Bangkok Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bangkok Utd and 1.0 for Ratchaburi (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bangkok Utd are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 2.00 for Ratchaburi. This match finished 1-4.

Bangkok Utd vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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