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Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Sukhothai FC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Buriram United

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.6%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 14.3% 7.00 +231.1%

Draw 24.7% 21.7% 4.60 +8.2%

Away win 28.0% 75.2% 1.33 -37.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 63.7% 1.57 -15.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 42.0% 2.38 -24.8%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 46.7% 22.2% 4.50 +110.1%

Away O1.5 33.2% 72.5% 1.38 -54.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sukhothai FC1.6

Buriram United1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUKHOTHAI FC · PPG 1.56

BURIRAM UNITED · PPG 1.91

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sukhothai FC (H) 47.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +231.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +8.2%

Buriram United (A) 28.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -37.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sukhothai FC face Buriram United in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sukhothai FC a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Buriram United 28%, so Sukhothai FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sukhothai FC and 1.1 for Buriram United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.91 for Buriram United. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +251.6%.

Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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