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Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:30

Lamphun Warrior

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Uthai Thani

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.4%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-111.9%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 47.6% 2.10 -0.3%

Draw 24.6% 33.3% 3.00 -15.7%

Away win 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.4% 3.40 +7.8%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 47.7% 45.0% 2.22 +5.9%

Away O1.5 33.1% 31.7% 3.15 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lamphun Warrior1.6

Uthai Thani1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAMPHUN WARRIOR · PPG 1.22

UTHAI THANI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lamphun Warrior (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -0.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.7%

Uthai Thani (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lamphun Warrior face Uthai Thani in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lamphun Warrior a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Uthai Thani 28%, so Lamphun Warrior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lamphun Warrior and 1.1 for Uthai Thani (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Uthai Thani. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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