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Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Ayutthaya FC

PPG 0.96 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ratchaburi

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.7%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.0%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 25.6% 3.90 +83.3%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 28.5% 58.8% 1.70 -30.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 45.9% 35.1% 2.85 +30.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 59.9% 1.67 -44.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ayutthaya FC1.6

Ratchaburi1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AYUTTHAYA FC · PPG 0.96

RATCHABURI · PPG 1.87

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ayutthaya FC (H) 47.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +83.3%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Ratchaburi (A) 28.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ayutthaya FC face Ratchaburi in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ayutthaya FC a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Ratchaburi 28%, so Ayutthaya FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ayutthaya FC and 1.1 for Ratchaburi (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ayutthaya FC are averaging 0.96 points per game versus 1.87 for Ratchaburi. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.4%.

Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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