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Jonava vs Neptuna K. Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:00

Jonava

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Neptuna K.

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.4%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.0%1-111.2%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 31.3% 3.20 +57.8%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 25.1% 49.0% 2.04 -29.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% 53.8% 1.86 -1.2%

Over 3.5 30.1% 31.7% 3.15 -5.2%

BTTS 54.6% 58.5% 1.71 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonava1.7

Neptuna K.1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JONAVA · PPG 2.33

NEPTUNA K. · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Jonava (H) 49.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +57.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

Neptuna K. (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonava face Neptuna K. in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonava a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Neptuna K. 25%, so Jonava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jonava and 1.0 for Neptuna K. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonava are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Neptuna K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +57.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Jonava vs Neptuna K. Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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