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Tammeka vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:00

Tammeka

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kuressaare

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.1%0-24.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.2%1-111.5%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.0%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

Away win 27.5% 33.3% 3.00 -10.5%

Over 2.5 57.7% 61.7% 1.62 -6.5%

Over 3.5 32.4% 40.0% 2.50 -19.0%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0✓ 9.2%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tammeka1.6

Kuressaare1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMMEKA · PPG 0.75

KURESSAARE · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Tammeka (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.9%

Kuressaare (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tammeka face Kuressaare in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tammeka a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Kuressaare 28%, so Tammeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tammeka and 1.3 for Kuressaare (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tammeka are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Kuressaare. This match finished 1-0.

Tammeka vs Kuressaare Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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