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Zemun vs Vrsac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Championship Group - 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Zemun

PPG 2.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Vrsac

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+34.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-13.7%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.0%1-17.9%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-16.0%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-15.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.7% 55.6% 1.80 +34.5%

Draw 17.4% 34.7% 2.88 -49.9%

Away win 7.9% 22.2% 4.50 -64.5%

Over 2.5 49.5% — — —

Over 3.5 27.6% — — —

BTTS 36.1% 47.6% 2.10 -24.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.1%

H 75% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.9%

#2 1–0 15.0%

#3 3–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zemun2.1

Vrsac0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZEMUN · PPG 2.47

VRSAC · PPG 1.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.47), Away AVERAGE (1.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Zemun (H) 74.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +34.5%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -49.9%

Vrsac (A) 7.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -64.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zemun face Vrsac in Serbia - Prva Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zemun a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Vrsac 8%, so Zemun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Zemun and 0.5 for Vrsac (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zemun are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.20 for Vrsac. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Zemun vs Vrsac Prediction— Serbia - Prva Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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