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Zalgiris B vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 15:30

Zalgiris B

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tauras

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-19.3%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.9%1-112.7%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-13.9%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 20.4% 4.90 +129.8%

Draw 27.8% 24.4% 4.10 +8.4%

Away win 25.3% 66.7% 1.50 -37.2%

Over 2.5 45.8% 69.9% 1.43 -34.5%

Over 3.5 18.3% 48.1% 2.08 -37.2%

BTTS 50.9% 66.7% 1.50 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.9%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 14.9%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalgiris B1.4

Tauras0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALGIRIS B · PPG 2.33

TAURAS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=46.9%

Win probability 1X2

Zalgiris B (H) 46.9%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +129.8%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.4%

Tauras (A) 25.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalgiris B face Tauras in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalgiris B a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Tauras 25%, so Zalgiris B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zalgiris B and 0.9 for Tauras (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalgiris B are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Tauras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +129.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Zalgiris B vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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