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Be1 NFA vs Siauliai B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 15:30

Be1 NFA

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Siauliai B

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.0%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.0%1-15.7%1-22.4%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.1%2-18.3%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-112.0%4+-24.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 78.7% 1.27 -13.9%

Draw 22.8% 20.0% 5.00 +8.4%

Away win 9.4% 11.8% 8.50 -12.1%

Over 2.5 61.7% 68.0% 1.47 -9.3%

Over 3.5 51.2% 45.9% 2.18 +11.6%

BTTS 54.6% 54.9% 1.82 -0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Be1 NFA2.9

Siauliai B0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BE1 NFA · PPG 2.00

SIAULIAI B · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Be1 NFA (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -13.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.4%

Siauliai B (A) 9.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Be1 NFA face Siauliai B in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Be1 NFA a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Siauliai B 9%, so Be1 NFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Be1 NFA and 0.8 for Siauliai B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Be1 NFA are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Siauliai B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 5-2.

Be1 NFA vs Siauliai B Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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