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Polessya vs Oleksandria Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 27 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 15:00

Polessya

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Oleksandria

PPG 0.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDL

// Model verdict

Home 80% chance

Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-13.5%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.4%1-17.5%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.8%3-15.8%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-15.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.5% 84.7% 1.18 -20.3%

Draw 23.1% 20.0% 5.00 +9.3%

Away win 9.3% 5.9% 17.00 +34.9%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 27.2% 34.5% 2.90 -12.7%

BTTS 45.9% 38.5% 2.60 +19.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 68% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.5%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 3–0 11.8%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polessya2.1

Oleksandria0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POLESSYA · PPG 1.69

OLEKSANDRIA · PPG 0.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

80%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.69), Away POOR (0.46) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Polessya (H) 67.5%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -20.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.3%

Oleksandria (A) 9.3%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polessya face Oleksandria in Ukraine - Premier League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polessya a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Oleksandria 9%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Polessya and 0.5 for Oleksandria (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polessya are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.46 for Oleksandria. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Polessya vs Oleksandria Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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