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Davao Aguilas vs One Taguig Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Davao Aguilas

PPG 2.11 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

One Taguig

PPG 2.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 96.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a clear edge.

+26.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-14.9%0-210.3%0-314.5%0-4+48.4%1 1-00.3%1-11.1%1-22.4%1-33.4%1-4+11.3%2 2-00.0%2-10.1%2-20.3%2-30.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 0.5% 15.4% 6.50 -96.8%

Draw 2.6% 20.0% 5.00 -87.0%

Away win 96.9% 76.9% 1.30 +26.0%

Over 2.5 82.3% 69.4% 1.44 +18.5%

Over 3.5 65.2% — — —

BTTS 20.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 83%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.2 xG (away)4.2 BTTS prob20.5%

A 97% / xG 0.2-4.2 / O2.5 82% / NoBTTS 20%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 15.4%

#2 0–3 14.5%

#3 0–5 13.0%

#4 0–2 10.3%

#5 0–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Davao Aguilas0.2

One Taguig4.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.3% · O3.5 PROB 65.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DAVAO AGUILAS · PPG 2.11

ONE TAGUIG · PPG 2.63

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.63) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.11)

Win probability 1X2

Davao Aguilas (H) 0.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -96.8%

Draw 2.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -87.0%

One Taguig (A) 96.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Davao Aguilas face One Taguig in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Davao Aguilas a 1% chance, the draw 3% and One Taguig 97%, so One Taguig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.2 for Davao Aguilas and 4.2 for One Taguig (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 21% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Davao Aguilas are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 2.63 for One Taguig. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.0%. This match finished 1-4.

Davao Aguilas vs One Taguig Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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