Today / Shkupi vs Vardar

Shkupi vs Vardar Prediction

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Shkupi logo
Shkupi
PPG 0.08 · HOME
0 – 7
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY
Vardar logo
Vardar
PPG 2.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs Home POOR (0.08)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-13.0%0-27.2%0-311.4%0-4+52.0%1 1-00.2%1-10.9%1-22.1%1-33.4%1-4+15.5%2 2-00.0%2-10.1%2-20.3%2-30.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 0.4%
Draw 1.9%
Away win 97.7%
Over 2.5 88.1%
Over 3.5 74.4%
BTTS 25.6%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 89%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-7
xG (home)0.3 xG (away)4.8 BTTS prob25.6%

A 98% / xG 0.3-4.8 / O2.5 88% / NoBTTS 26%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 13.6%
#2 0–5 13.0%
#3 0–3 11.4%
#4 0–2 7.2%
#5 1–4 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shkupi0.3
Vardar4.8

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.1% · O3.5 PROB 74.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SHKUPI · PPG 0.08

VARDAR · PPG 2.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs Home POOR (0.08)

Win probability 1X2

Shkupi (H) 0.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 1.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Vardar (A) 97.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shkupi face Vardar on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shkupi a 0% chance, the draw 2% and Vardar 98%, so Vardar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Shkupi and 4.8 for Vardar (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 26% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shkupi are averaging 0.08 points per game versus 2.31 for Vardar. This match finished 0-7.

PredictVantage

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18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org