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Van vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 11:00

Van

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shirak

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.6%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-111.3%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.5%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 55.6% 1.80 -8.2%

Draw 26.4% 28.6% 3.50 -4.6%

Away win 22.6% 26.0% 3.85 -7.8%

Over 2.5 47.3% 54.1% 1.85 -12.5%

Over 3.5 25.5% 31.3% 3.20 -11.0%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0✓ 13.2%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Van1.7

Shirak0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VAN · PPG 1.25

SHIRAK · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Van (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -8.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.6%

Shirak (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Van face Shirak in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Van a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Shirak 23%, so Van are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Van and 0.9 for Shirak (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Van are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.33 for Shirak. This match finished 1-0.

Van vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions