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Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 27 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 10:00

Kryvbas KR

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Karpaty Lviv

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.0%0-26.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.1%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.2%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.7%3-13.7%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 37.0% 2.70 +0.2%

Draw 26.6% 29.9% 3.35 -6.5%

Away win 36.3% 43.5% 2.30 -16.5%

Over 2.5 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Over 3.5 29.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kryvbas KR1.3

Karpaty Lviv1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 1.85

KARPATY LVIV · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.85), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Kryvbas KR (H) 37.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +0.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.5%

Karpaty Lviv (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kryvbas KR face Karpaty Lviv in Ukraine - Premier League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kryvbas KR a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Karpaty Lviv 36%, so Kryvbas KR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kryvbas KR and 1.4 for Karpaty Lviv (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.69 for Karpaty Lviv. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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