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National Bank vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 9 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 17:00

National Bank

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Ismaily

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.1%0-19.5%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.4%1-110.5%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.9%2-15.8%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.8%3-12.1%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 54.3% 1.84 -13.5%

Draw 32.1% 34.5% 2.90 -6.9%

Away win 20.8% 20.0% 5.00 +2.4%

Over 2.5 35.1% 42.0% 2.38 -16.5%

Over 3.5 7.3% 22.2% 4.50 -40.3%

BTTS 41.8% 48.8% 2.05 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.8%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 21.1%

#2 1–0 23.4%

#3 2–0 12.9%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

National Bank1.1

Ismaily0.4

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NATIONAL BANK · PPG 1.50

ISMAILY · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=47.0%

Win probability 1X2

National Bank (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -13.5%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.9%

Ismaily (A) 20.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

National Bank face Ismaily in Egypt - Premier League on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives National Bank a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Ismaily 21%, so National Bank are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for National Bank and 0.4 for Ismaily (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, National Bank are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.63 for Ismaily. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-0.

National Bank vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions