Today / Egypt - Premier League / El Geish vs Ghazl El M.

El Geish vs Ghazl El M. Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 9 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 14:00

El Geish

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Ghazl El M.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.6%0-119.1%0-27.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-111.8%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.8%2-13.6%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.0%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 41.3% 2.42 -23.5%

Draw 40.9% 42.0% 2.38 -2.7%

Away win 34.0% 26.0% 3.85 +30.9%

Over 2.5 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Over 3.5 4.9% 15.4% 6.50 -40.9%

BTTS 41.8% 42.6% 2.35 -1.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.8%

D 41% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.6%

#2 0–1 19.1%

#3 1–0✓ 15.8%

#4 1–1 11.8%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Geish0.6

Ghazl El M.0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 4.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EL GEISH · PPG 1.38

GHAZL EL M. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

El Geish (H) 25.1%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -23.5%

Draw 40.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -2.7%

Ghazl El M. (A) 34.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Geish face Ghazl El M. in Egypt - Premier League on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Geish a 25% chance, the draw 41% and Ghazl El M. 34%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for El Geish and 0.7 for Ghazl El M. (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Geish are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Ghazl El M.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.9%. This match finished 1-0.

El Geish vs Ghazl El M. Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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