Today / New York City vs Los Angeles FC
New York City vs Los Angeles FC Prediction
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 45% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%
Form & verdict
NEW YORK CITY · PPG 1.14
LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 1.60
Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.14) vs Away GOOD (1.60)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New York City face Los Angeles FC on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York City a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Los Angeles FC 45%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for New York City and 1.8 for Los Angeles FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York City are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.60 for Los Angeles FC.