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TransINVEST vs Suduva Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 17:00

TransINVEST

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Suduva

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-19.7%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-112.8%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-18.4%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 44.4% 2.25 +5.1%

Draw 28.2% 31.3% 3.20 -5.9%

Away win 25.1% 33.3% 3.00 -14.8%

Over 2.5 45.8% 48.8% 2.05 -6.1%

Over 3.5 16.9% 27.0% 3.70 -22.5%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.2%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TransINVEST1.3

Suduva0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST · PPG 1.60

SUDUVA · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

TransINVEST (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +5.1%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.9%

Suduva (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

TransINVEST face Suduva in Lithuania - A Lyga on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TransINVEST a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Suduva 25%, so TransINVEST are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for TransINVEST and 0.8 for Suduva (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TransINVEST are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Suduva. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 1-1.

TransINVEST vs Suduva Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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