Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole

TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00

TransINVEST Vilnius

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

UPCOMING

Suduva Marijampole

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-112.4%0-27.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.7%2-17.0%2-24.3%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.0%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Draw 27.4% 33.3% 3.00 -10.7%

Away win 42.0% 46.5% 2.15 -9.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -25.8%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TransINVEST Vilnius1.1

Suduva Marijampole1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST VILNIUS · PPG 1.62

SUDUVA MARIJAMPOLE · PPG 1.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TransINVEST Vilnius (H) 30.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.7%

Suduva Marijampole (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

TransINVEST Vilnius face Suduva Marijampole in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TransINVEST Vilnius a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Suduva Marijampole 42%, so Suduva Marijampole are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for TransINVEST Vilnius and 1.2 for Suduva Marijampole (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TransINVEST Vilnius are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.69 for Suduva Marijampole. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.1%.

TransINVEST Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions