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Dukla P. U19 vs Karvina U19 Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Dukla P. U19

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karvina U19

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+44.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.1%0-23.6%0-32.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-02.8%1-16.3%1-27.2%1-35.4%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.2%2-35.5%2-4+5.3%3 3-01.9%3-14.3%3-24.8%3-33.7%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.4%4+-23.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 36.8% 2.72 -4.0%

Draw 19.8% 31.3% 3.20 -36.6%

Away win 44.9% 41.3% 2.42 +8.7%

Over 2.5 80.1% 55.6% 1.80 +44.2%

Over 3.5 62.0% 33.3% 3.00 +86.0%

BTTS 77.7% 62.5% 1.60 +24.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 35%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob77.7%

A 45% / xG 2.0-2.3 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–2✓ 7.2%

#3 2–1 6.3%

#4 1–1 6.3%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dukla P. U192.0

Karvina U192.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.1% · O3.5 PROB 62.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DUKLA P. U19 · PPG 1.60

KARVINA U19 · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Dukla P. U19 (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -4.0%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -36.6%

Karvina U19 (A) 44.9%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dukla P. U19 face Karvina U19 in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dukla P. U19 a 35% chance, the draw 20% and Karvina U19 45%, so Karvina U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Dukla P. U19 and 2.3 for Karvina U19 (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dukla P. U19 are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.20 for Karvina U19. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +86.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Dukla P. U19 vs Karvina U19 Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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