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Hegelmann L. vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 15:30

Hegelmann L.

PPG 1.17 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Panevezys

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-112.3%0-25.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.3%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 43.5% 2.30 -7.5%

Draw 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

Away win 28.1% 34.5% 2.90 -11.1%

Over 2.5 39.6% 48.8% 2.05 -18.8%

Over 3.5 14.3% 27.0% 3.70 -28.2%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann L.1.1

Panevezys0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN L. · PPG 1.17

PANEVEZYS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann L. (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -7.5%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.4%

Panevezys (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann L. face Panevezys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann L. a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Panevezys 28%, so Hegelmann L. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hegelmann L. and 0.9 for Panevezys (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann L. are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Panevezys. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Hegelmann L. vs Panevezys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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